If 2025 was the year AI got loud, 2026 is the year it gets operational—especially in payments. Visa is explicitly building rails so AI agents can complete purchases with network-level controls and tokenization, and Mastercard has launched “Agent Pay” to support agentic commerce.
Meanwhile, tokenization’s storyline is finally maturing from “crypto vibes” to “market plumbing.” DTCC announced a platform for tokenized real-time collateral management—which is the kind of sentence you only publish when you’re serious.
But first… we’re doing something rare:
we’re auditing last year’s predictions like adults.
In this edition, we cover:
- How my 2025 predictions actually aged (hits, partials, misses)
- The 2026 shift from “AI answers” → AI workflows (and where you should not outsource)
- Why tokenization’s early winners are cash + collateral, not just flashy new wrappers
- The private markets arms race nobody talks about: liquidity engineering
- The new household rule for 2026: fraud defense
Alright. Receipts time.
2025 Predictions: Hits, Misses, Lessons
I’m going to be annoyingly honest here—because honesty is the whole point of a predictions edition.
✅ The hits (clean)
- Hybrid advice (human + tech) kept winning. The industry drift is obvious: AI does the busywork, humans own the judgment.
- Influencers shaped financial behavior. Still true. Still messy.
- Goals-based wealth got louder. Not viral, but real in how people actually make decisions.
⚠️ The partials (right trend, wrong timeline or first wave)
- “AI revolutionizes wealth management.” Directionally right… but 2025 was mostly copilots. The fully autonomous “money manager” isn’t a mainstream default (yet).
- “Tokenized funds redefine investing.” Right trend, but the breakout wasn’t “tokenized VC for everyone.” It was tokenized cash-like products and infrastructure. BlackRock’s tokenized fund BUIDL surpassing $1B AUM is a real milestone, not a vibe.
❌ The miss (own it)
- Digital philanthropy as a defining money story. Important theme, not a defining 2025 wealth headline.
🏒 And yes…
My 2025 grade: 6/10 clean hits, 2 partials, 2 misses.
Key lesson: direction was right—adoption timing was the hard part.
Now let’s talk 2026.
Your 2026 Predictions (1–10)
1) AI’s biggest “investment” story stays physical: power, grid, bottlenecks
In 2026, the most underpriced piece of “AI” isn’t another app. It’s the real-world constraints: energy, infrastructure, and the knock-on effects of data-center buildouts. AI is software… sitting on top of very expensive physical reality.
Do this next: Audit your unintentional AI exposure (mega-cap overlap + tech-heavy indexes + job sensitivity). If you’re already concentrated, you don’t need “AI-themed” anything.
2) The AI regulation fight shifts from “accuracy” to “incentives + manipulation”
Regulators care less about whether the model is smart and more about whether it nudges you toward outcomes that benefit the platform. The SEC’s proposal on predictive data analytics is explicitly about conflicts when firms use tech to steer investor behavior.
And the EU AI Act is fully applicable on Aug. 2, 2026 (with phased requirements already underway).
Do this next: Prefer tools that show: clear permissions, an audit trail, and a kill switch.
3) Agentic commerce goes mainstream because the card networks built the rails
The fastest path for “agentic AI” isn’t investing. It’s shopping + checkout. Visa’s Intelligent Commerce APIs are designed to let AI agents buy securely with tokenization/authentication/controls. Mastercard’s Agent Pay is pointed at the same future.
Do this next: Set spending rules before you delegate: essentials auto-approved, subscriptions audited, big buys require approval + 24-hour delay.
4) “Approval-to-execute” becomes the default money workflow
Most consumer-facing “agents” won’t be autonomous. They’ll be permissioned: draft a plan, tee up actions, then you approve. That’s the adult version of automation: helpful, controlled, and auditable.
Do this next: Make your money legible (fewer accounts, clear names, consistent categories). Agents can’t optimize chaos.
5) Fraud becomes AI-native: voice cloning forces a new family protocol
This is the one that hits normal people hardest. The FTC has warned about scammers cloning a loved one’s voice and demanding urgent money.
Do this next: Create a family verification protocol: a safe word + “no money sent on urgency” rule.
6) Tokenization’s first mass win stays boring: tokenized cash + money markets
Tokenization wins first where trust is highest and settlement benefits are immediate. BlackRock’s BUIDL crossing $1B AUM is one signal. And Reuters reported Goldman Sachs + BNY Mellon launched tokens tied to money market funds to modernize settlement and improve collateral usability.
Do this next: When you hear “tokenization,” ask: does this reduce settlement friction—or just repackage ownership?
7) Tokenized collateral becomes the stealth engine of private markets
DTCC’s tokenized real-time collateral platform is a giant tell: the future isn’t just “tokenized assets,” it’s tokenized workflows around margin and collateral.
Do this next: If you invest in private markets, track “operational risk” like a real allocation: servicing, liquidity mechanics, valuation cadence, collateral terms.
8) Private markets’ real arms race becomes liquidity engineering
2026 isn’t just about access—it’s about “what happens if you need out.” Expect more innovation in: interval-style structures, tender offers, and secondary windows. This won’t make private assets magically liquid. It just makes them less painful to own.
Do this next: Before any alt commitment, write: “I will not need this money for X years.” If you can’t write that sentence, don’t allocate.
9) The “5-minute money system” beats budgeting shame
In 2026, the budgeting winner isn’t the fanciest app—it’s the system that runs itself: payday routing, buckets, autopay, and a short weekly check-in. The goal is fewer decisions, not more spreadsheets.
Do this next: Create 5 buckets (Safety / Bills / Future You / Freedom / Big Goal) and automate transfers on payday. Spend what’s left guilt-free.
10) The first-home reality check gets louder: insurance + taxes + HOA become the real killers
If you buy a home in 2026, the biggest mistake isn’t the rate. It’s underestimating ongoing costs—insurance volatility, property taxes, HOA traps, and maintenance you didn’t budget.
Do this next: Price your “true monthly” before you bid: PITI + insurance + HOA + maintenance reserve. If it’s not in the number, it’s not affordable.
Bonus cheeky prediction (because we’re still human)
The Rangers still won’t win the Cup.
Last year’s cheeky call aged correctly—the Panthers repeated.
We’re running it back. You can roast me in June.
Your “Do This Next” Action (10 minutes)
Make your money legible—for you, for your partner, and for whatever automation you adopt next year:
- Consolidate to one primary checking + one savings lane
- Rename accounts clearly (“Emergency Fund,” not “Savings 2”)
- Create 5 buckets
- Turn on one payday automation (even $50/week counts)
That’s how you become “AI-ready” and “alts-ready” without getting wrecked by hype.
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